Sunday’s shocking events brought an unexpected reaction from investors
Almost as surprising as the weekend’s shock events in Brasilia was how little world markets appeared to react - showing investors may already be braced for an era of more volatile geopolitics after 2022′s tensions over Russia and China.
The attack on government buildings came just days after the inauguration of leftist Luiz Inacio Lula Da Silva, the victor in October’s tight election. It did not address wider institutional concerns about the resilience of Brazilian democracy or risk of military rule and how allied Western democracies, who widely condemned the weekend riots, may be forced to react to such an extreme outcome in terms of sanctions.
JPMorgan strategists said their short-term valuation model put the real’s fair valued around 5.15 per dollar - about 4% stronger than where it started the year and leaving its risk premium amounting to a “reasonable” 1.5 standard deviation. It also said data showed foreign positioning in real was near the lows of the past two years.
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