Second-quarter corporate earnings, hotly anticipated U.S. inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting are among potentially pivotal events
For now, the mood on Wall Street is grim. Bonds, which investors count on to offset stock declines, have tumbled alongside equities, with the ICE BofA Treasury Index on pace for its worst year in the index’s history. Some 90% of respondents in a recent Deutsche Bank survey expected a U.S. recession by the end of 2023.
History, however, “does not offer very encouraging news” for those hoping the bleak first half will be followed by a bounce in the latter part the year, wrote CFRA chief investment strategist Sam Stovall. A disappointing jobs report next Friday could exacerbate concerns of a potential recession. The following week brings data on U.S. consumer prices, after a hotter-than-expected report last month triggered a selloff in stocks and prompted the Fed to deliver a hefty 75 basis point rate increase in June.
Second-quarter earnings start arriving in force the week of July 11, indicating whether companies can keep living up to estimates despite surging inflation and growth worries. Strategists at Goldman Sachs are less sanguine, warning that consensus margin forecasts suggest earnings estimates are “likely too optimistic” and margins for the median S&P 500 company will likely decline next year “whether or not the economy falls into recession.”
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