The target’s conservatism is in keeping with the emerging theme of this year’s National People's Congress, which is about China’s rulers tightening their grip over the state apparatus
, the country’s outgoing prime minister , opened the congress with his annual “work report”. It confirmed ain 2023, lower than many external forecasts. The target’s conservatism sets the tone for an event which is likely to be about China’s leaders tightening their control over the state.
Last year China’s government missed its growth target by a wide margin , largely owing to its costly attempt to keep covid-19 at bay. This year it has prized credibility over confidence. The new target of 5% may seem like a respectable pace to set, roughly in line with China’s underlying “trend” rate of growth. But the economy would normally be expected to exceed that trend comfortably this year, because it fell so far short of it last year.
The undemanding growth target removes any pressure to stimulate the economy further. Compared with last year, Mr Li’s report to the congress contained fewer exhortations to local governments to keep the economy going. He instead pointed out the need to prevent a build-up of new debts. “The budgetary imbalances of some local governments are substantial,” he noted. This year they will be allowed to issue 3.8trn-yuan worth of “special” bonds . On paper, that quota is a little higher than last year.
Once this closer control has been imposed on the state apparatus, what goals will be set for it? Mr Li’s work report offered little concrete guidance. Like previous editions, it is a combination of theological boilerplate , policy bromides and technocratic factoids .
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