Downing Street has long been aware that May marks a danger point
When Rishi Sunak stood in Warsaw alongside the head of Nato to announce his plan to boost UK defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2030, it was a sight quickly cheered by the Tory party. After defence was notably missing from the spring budget, this was the pledge many in the cabinet and on the right of the party had long hoped to see.
The timing, too, of the Rwanda vote is not coincidental. Sunak was criticised before the spring recess for letting MPs go home early after the Lords once again sent back the Safety of Rwanda bill with amendments. If it was, as he claimed, an emergency, then why not make MPs stay and vote? But passing it this week means MPs ought to go into campaign mode with a sense that the beginnings of a plan are underway., so too does the Prime Minister’s showdown with his critics.
While many are at pains to keep their identities private, those keen to see Sunak depart office this side of the election include former Tory aides with time on their hands, and some Tory MPs who argue they would be better off switching leader. Meanwhile, while no-one in the Cabinet is agitating to push Sunak out now there are some ministers wooing colleagues so they are ready just in case the post-election leadership contest begins prematurely.
. Last year’s local elections stunted any sense of as Tory recovery – and they were easier compared with these ones. In 2023, the councils up for election had last been voted on in the low point of the May era yet the Tories under Sunak still lost over a 1000 seats. This time around, the councils and mayoralties up for grabs were last contested at the Boris Johnson high point.
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