Inflation of above 6% is expected for 2022 and 2023 according to a survey of analysts, business people and trade unions, with 5.6% expected for next year. A rate of above 6% means more interest rate increases.📈
Inflation of above 6% is expected for 2022 and 2023 according to a survey of analysts, business people and trade unions, with 5.6% expected for next year. A rate of above 6% means more interest rate increases., the average inflation expectations of analysts, business people and trade unions jumped from 6.5% in the third quarter to 6.6% in the fourth quarter of 2022, while expectations for 2023 increased from 5.9% to 6.1% and from 5.3% to 5.6% for 2024.
Different groups are used because each group has a different perspective and impact on inflation, such as business people who affect prices in the real economy, while analysts affect financial markets. Trade union representatives and households, as employees, affect wage increases, which in turn significantly affects inflation.Inflation expectations for fourth quarter increased
According to the BER, after moderating from 6.5% to 5.8% in the third quarter, household inflation expectations during the next 12 months rebounded to 6.3% in the fourth quarter, while average household inflation expectations over the next 5 years remained unchanged at 8.4% in the fourth quarter. It also seems that all three groups settled on salary and wage increases of around 6% annually for 2022 and 2023 and they did not make any significant revisions to their forecasts compared to the third quarter. Analysts expect wages to increase by 5.7% in 2023, while business people expect a higher rate of 6.1% for 2023.Why are these expectations important?
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