In a winter of discontent, Americans vote for the status quo, writes MichaelBarone.
Note that that seems to be the practical result of the 2022 midterm elections last month. Republicans eked out exactly the same narrow House majority the Democrats had won in 2020. This seems likely to prevent any further policy lurch to the left. And the Democrats’ retention of a narrow Senate majority, and of course the White House, prevents a lurch to the left.Nationwide, precious few incumbents were ejected from office.
Half a century ago, such negative feelings were enough to oust incumbent presidents. Richard Nixon was forced out of office in 1974 and his two successors, Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter, were defeated in 1976 and 1980. Thus Bill Clinton was reelected with 49% of the popular vote in 1996, and George W. Bush and Barack Obama were each reelected with 51% in 2004 and 2012, respectively.
In each case, there was a recoil against an attempted or successful leftward lurch in public policy — to Hillarycare in 1994 and Obamacare in the 2010s.
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