U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the Biden administration and its allies are discussing an embargo of Russian oil, a move that threatens to make an already heated oil market even more volatile.
Pressure is growing on the U.S. to hit back harder at the invasion of Ukraine by squeezing exports from Russia’s key energy industry. While traders, shippers, insurers and banks are increasingly wary of taking on or funding purchases of Russian barrels, an embargo could extend crude’s record gain last week.
Vitol Group, world’s biggest independent crude trader, said the oil market could tighten further with disruptions to Russian flows and as producers such as Libya experience supply problems. JPMorgan Chase & Co. said global benchmark Brent crude could end the year at $185 a barrel if Russian supply continues to be disrupted, and some hedge funds are eyeing $200. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said that without Russian barrels on the market, oil could reach $150 in the next three months.
Markets are also closely watching negotiations between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which took a tentative step forward over the weekend. While that could eventually pave the way for the return of the country’s oil to global markets by the third quarter this year, a final deal has yet to be secured.
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