The International Monetary Fund predicts a 25% probability that global growth will slow to less than 2%
The International Monetary Fund warned of a worsening outlook for the global economy, highlighting that efforts to manage the highest inflation in decades may add to the damage from the war in Ukraine and China’s slowdown.
The impact of the Federal Reserve’s monetary-policy tightening will be felt globally, with the dollar’s strength vs currencies in emerging and developing markets adding to inflation and debt pressures. To be sure, the IMF sees greater risk from central banks doing too little rather than too much amid persistent price pressures, a mistake that would cost them credibility and only increase the eventual cost to bring prices under control.
The euro-area economy will grow just 0.5% in 2023, according to the fund, with the bloc seeing the sharpest outlook reduction among global regions. Germany, Italy and Russia all will see their economies shrink.Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, IMF chief economist Advanced economies are forecast to grow 1.1% next year, compared with 3.7% for emerging markets and developing economies.
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