Forecasters say there is a 62% chance El Niño will develop sometime between May and July. This comes after nearly two continuous years of a La Niña.
After almost three years of La Niña, a pattern that's affected conditions across North America and led to some tumultuous hurricane seasons in the Atlantic basin, we might finally see a reversal of the pattern with a potential El Niño developing in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
A watch is issued when conditions are favourable for the development of El Niño within the next six months. "While we are still in an ENSO-neutral phase – when no El Niño or La Niña is present – there is a 62% chance El Niño will develop sometime between May and July. This comes after nearly two continuous years of a La Niña," reads the outlook from the NOAA.
Forecasters predict that we could be headed straight into an El Niño next. According to the CPC, the odds of El Niño conditions setting in by this summer are greater than 50%, with a six-in-ten chance of it being in full bloom during the peak of hurricane season in late summer and early fall. Although the shift in sea surface temperatures might seem slight, it could have a significant impact on weather patterns worldwide.
According to The Weather Network, "previous summers that saw El Niño conditions begin not long after La Niña conditions ended were cooler than normal for much of the eastern half of the country. The summers of 1997 and 2009 were examples of this sudden switch."
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