For over thirty years, Iran has been willing to blow up diplomats, spies and even ordinary civilians to make a point
“WE WILL TAKE revenge.” The words were those of Major-General Hossein Salami, head of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps , speaking at the funeral of Qassem Suleimani, the head of the IRGC’s elite Quds Force. The sentiment has pervaded the rhetoric of virtually every Iranian spokesman since General Suleimani’s assassination on January 3rd.
The naval option is limited. Iran has often threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which much of the world’s oil exports must pass, if attacked. But Western military experts think that any closure could be reversed in weeks, given the weak state of Iran’s conventional military equipment. Yet Iran’s offensive cyber capabilities are probably of limited use against America, says a former British official with knowledge of the issue. “I don’t believe the Iranians have the capability to penetrate US classified systems or industrial-control systems and generally to cause them serious military harm,” he says. Iran “will feel over-matched on cyber and deeply vulnerable” to retaliation.Naval potshots and cyber-skirmishing may not fit Iran’s present purposes.
In the past year Iran has used its regional networks to turn up the heat on America and its allies. The Houthi movement in Yemen has lobbed increasing numbers of Iranian-made drones and missiles over ever-longer distances, sending them smashing into Saudi airports and Emirati radars.
On January 5th Hassan Nasrallah, Hizbullah’s leader, insisted that his fighters would not go after civilians such as “traders, journalists, engineers, and doctors”. They “cannot be touched,” he insisted. This should be taken with a grain of salt: hostage-taking was a favoured tactic in the 1980s. Iran-backed groups captured journalists, preachers and aid workers. The grisliest case involved William F.
All this will strengthen the appeal of a nuclear shield. On January 5th Iran abandoned the last of several restrictions on uranium enrichment that it had accepted under the 2015 nuclear deal negotiated with the American administration of Barack Obama. Mr Trump repudiated it in May 2018, setting the stage for the present crisis.
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