The FiveThirtyEight forecast currently holds a 64 percent chance that no candidate will achieve a majority of pledged delegates before the convention.
Polling in some of the most populous Super Tuesday states shows that former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Massachusetts Senator Elizabeth Warren could play an outsize role in delegate splitting. In California and Texas, both are teetering around the edge of the 15-percent threshold, putting them in a position to siphon a substantial share of the delegate count.
A two-person race in California suddenly becoming a four-person race could redirect dozens of delegates. Overall, 1,357 pledged delegates will be awarded across the country on Super Tuesday, more than one-third of the total number of delegates who will vote on the first ballot in July.
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