Throughout hurricane season, it does not take long for 'weather enthusiasts' to start posting misleading information when it comes to the tropics.
Throughout hurricane season, it does not take long for "weather enthusiasts" to start posting misleading information when it comes to the tropics.
A post such as the one below, which shows a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico about 15 days out, was only based on one model run and one model alone.Reliable and knowledgeable meteorologists would never make a forecast based on one model and one model run alone. For example, a morning run of a forecast model could show something in the tropics several days out. However, by the afternoon, the model could completely eliminate the possibility of anything developing.It can also vary among the variety of models we look at to build forecasts.You often hear us compare the European and American models. These are the two main forecast models, but there are many others that we also analyze when building a forecast.
When more than one model picks up on something and the window of time gets closer, we can have greater confidence in the potential for a tropical system to form.
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