How Tesla can produce the vehicles and create sufficient demand to sell them in order to continue Tesla's aggressive growth trajectory
Fremont can likely expand production to about 700,000, primarily converting the Model 3 to use Gigacastings for the front and rear. This might be part of the Highland refresh or it might be on a different schedule, but it is important in order to increase the production of the Model 3 to meet the slightly increased demand expected because of the refresh.
Berlin’s ramp has been a bit disappointing, but I expect the factory can produce 400,000 Model Ys next year. A lower-priced rear-wheel-drive Model Y that is available in the US around $42,000, or about $35,000 after the Federal Tax Credit, would greatly expand sales of the car — by about 100,000 units, I estimate — which is a huge increase in a single country, especially sinceThe refreshed Model 3 could increase demand worldwide from about 500,000 units to 600,000 units, a 100,000 increase.
Tesla has spoken about increasing leasing in selected markets. In the US, you can use this to get the full $7,500 tax credit in situations where the buyer isn’t eligible or the car isn’t eligible. Tesla would prefer not to use its capital this way, but may need to depending on how things go. It is likely Tesla could increase sales by 50,000 or more if it greatly expanded leasing with aggressive terms. If it allowed owners to buy the car at the end of the lease, it could expand sales even more.
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