Robert Gehrke answers some of the biggest questions coming out of the primary election, like: How many of Becky Edwards' and Ally Isom's voters will Evan McMullin need to beat Mike Lee in November? 'Short answer: Pretty much all of them.'
Did Democrat crossover impact state legislative races? Did Ally Isom run a spoiler campaign? Gehrke answers your burning questions.In the aftermath of the primary elections, I decided to do a sort of “reader mailbag” feature and solicited questions via Twitter in an attempt to try to provide a little insight or context for some of the post-primary fallout.
That leaves us Kitchen and Plumb, who ran against each other in 2018. Kitchen won that race by 550 votes. What’s your guess on the number of Edwards and Isom voters needed by [Evan] McMullin to pull off the upset? The longer answer is that it’s really hard to know because there are so many unknowable factors — including which party turns out in the general election and whether Democrats actually coalesce behind Evan McMullin.
As I said, this is back-of-the-napkin math and a snapshot using limited data. We also know politics are dynamic and campaigns can change voters’ minds. It won’t be easy, but there does seem to be a path for McMullin to make this race close and a chance to make history.No. I’ve never seen any indication that was the intent and I certainly don’t think Isom ran as a stalking horse to split the vote and help Lee.
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