How Low Can China's Currency Go?

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How Low Can China's Currency Go?
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The Chinese yuan may weaken into the 7s. If so, Chinese investors may be looking to take their money out of the country in greater numbers.

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Some China bears and financial pundits are fuelling a speculative frenzy that the psychologically important level of 7 for yuan-dollar rate may be breached around the G20, assuming Trump and Xi Jinping fail to show how much they really are BFFs. "It's impossible to forecast," says James Barrineau, co-head of emerging market debt for Schroders."A lot of this depends on how Trump gets up in the morning. I supposed everyone’s base case is that there will be further tariffs on China. You have to have that as your base case."On the negative side, fixed asset investment and industrial production have come in lower than expected. Businesses are generally more sensitive to the recent upsurge in trade tensions with the U.

The Chinese central bank is said to be selling yuan to swamp for Hong Kong dollars, pulling some liquidity out of the A-shares, but at least potentially keeping the currency strong. Photographer: Paul Yeung/BloombergSome $16 billion has flowed into the Chinese bond market in net terms in May alone, which is the largest inflow so far this year. The Chinese bond market is 15.6% larger than it was before Barclays added it to the index, but foreigners still only own 3.

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