The 10-year Treasury and 10-year TIPS yields are back in territories which have historically been regarded as normal for the U.S. economy.
The 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y finished at 4.258%, its highest level since June 13, 2008, on Wednesday after a steep three-year run-up. Meanwhile, the real rate — based on the yield on 10-year Treasury inflation-protected securities, or TIPS — was at 1.927% as of 3 p.m. Eastern time, extending its rise out of below-zero levels that had prevailed during the early years of the pandemic, according to Tradeweb.
While fed funds futures traders continue to hold out hope that the Federal Reserve will start cutting rates by next May from the current level between 5.25%-5.5%, the continuing resiliency of inflation and the economy make that scenario harder to justify. Minutes of the Fed’s July 25-26 meeting, released on Wednesday, left the door open to further rate hikes, with most policy makers continuing to see significant upside risks to inflation. All three major U.S. stock indexes DJIA SPX COMP finished with back-to-back losses after the release, while 3-month BX:TMUBMUSD03M through 30-year Treasury yields BX:TMUBMUSD30Y moved broadly higher.
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