The effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on childbearing rates in the United States.
By Dr. Priyom Bose, Ph.D.Aug 21 2023Reviewed by Benedette Cuffari, M.Sc. A recent Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study analyzes the effect of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic on childbearing rates in the United States.Background Total fertility rate is a measure of the expected number of children throughout a woman’s lifetime. Between 2007 and 2020, a significant reduction in the U.S. TFR from 2.1 to 1.
There has been speculation that these values may not be accurate due to missing data and a surge in mortality rates in regions with greater economic stress due to pandemic lockdowns. Study findings In 2020, the nine-month unemployment was found to decrease birth counts, which continued at a faster rate in 2021. However, the reduction in fertility rates in 2020 was considerably less than what was predicted by standard statistical models.
The COVID-19 recession did not follow the pattern of previous recessions with respect to a baby bust. In fact, the 2020 COVID-19 recession was followed by a surge in births. The change in the trend of reduced birth rates during unemployment associated with the COVID-19 recession could be due to the significant support provided by the federal government, which included $650 billion in federal pandemic unemployment benefits between March 2020 and September 2021. Additionally, the increase in unemployment due to the COVID-19 recession was short-lived as compared to previous recessions.
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