Refugees fleeing weather-related disasters are changing the political equation in Florida, Virginia, California, Idaho and beyond
When Puerto Rican native Olga González became the first Latina mayor of Kissimmee, Fla., last year,A fast-growing Orlando suburb of 80,000 people, Kissimmee saw its Puerto Rican population grow substantially after the damage wrought by Hurricane Maria in 2017 prompted many struggling families to leave the island for Florida.
But as evidenced by González’s election, such changes are significant enough to start scrambling the political map, with experts foreseeing a cascading effect of changes to come. Tracking the path of climate migration can be harder than tracking a storm. Analysts have resorted to combing through IRS tax returns and cellphone bills to determine where people who left areas hit by a climate-related disasters are setting up new residences. But they’ve been able to piece together enough data to conclude that climate migration is already driving population change.
But even relatively short moves can create political upheavals. About 37,000 people lived in the 240 square miles ravaged by the notorious Camp Fire in 2018, which burned for more than two weeks to become the most destructive wildfire in California history. California State University, Chico, used postal data to track 13,000 adults in the area and found that a third of those people — many with families in tow — headed 20 miles south and west to the city of Chico within six months of the blaze.
“People were upset,” Ory recalled. “Their whole lives changed. The opposition took advantage of that. We had more and more people coming to the [City Council] meetings. Very disruptive, very abusive, blaming us for everything.” The area, which includes Boise, was already experiencing an influx of Golden State residents seeking cheaper housing, said Katie McConnell, a doctoral candidate in environmental sociology at Yale School of the Environment who is researching the flow of Californians into Idaho to escape wildfires. But as climate change made drought conditions worse and increased the frequency of wildfires in California, many more families headed north to Idaho.
“It’s an interesting thing that happens when you'll talk to people about incoming Californians,” McConnell said. “If you're talking to a politically liberal person, they'll complain about all the rich conservatives from Orange County moving to Idaho. If you talk to a politically conservative Idahoan, they'll complain about all of the rich liberal people from the Bay moving to Idaho.
The Puerto Ricans who decided to stay in Florida permanently are now starting to flex their own political muscles, Rivera added.
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