How Accurate Are Coronavirus Death Counts?

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How Accurate Are Coronavirus Death Counts?
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Some states include suspected cases in their COVID-19 death tolls, while, in Alabama, even those who had a lab-confirmed case may not be counted -- and those differences may have serious effects on the duration of this pandemic.

April 17, 2020 -- If a loved one dies in Colorado, Ohio, Connecticut, and other states, and COVID-19 is suspected but there is no confirmed diagnosis, that death will now be included in the state’s death toll. But in Alabama, even those who had a lab-confirmed case may not be counted.The lack of widespread diagnostic testing in the U.S. has forced doctors and researchers to use other ways to find out where anis particularly bad, and how well stay-at-home orders are working.

At the urging of a group of epidemiologists, the CDC this week updated its guidance for counting COVID-19 cases and deaths. It now includes both confirmed cases and probable ones, but each state still determines what to report. So, Alabama may continue to exclude patients who tested positive, if a doctor’s review determines they may have died from another cause. As of Thursday, the state had 133 reported deaths with positive tests, but only 82 had been attributed to COVID-19.

“Until we have that total count, we can't really understand the actual impact of all this,” says Joseph Masci, MD, chairman of the Global Health Department at Elmhurst Hospital in New York City. “And it'll give us an idea of what steps should be taken next, and in what sequence to begin to return to normal again.”

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