The issue of ballot exhaustion — when voters don’t rank their ballot completely — could help decide who wins the special election to finish Don Young's term.
Whoever comes in third place in this race will be eliminated first under the state’s new ranked choice voting system. While it remains to be seen how the uncounted votes might shape final results, it’s highly unlikely third-place finisher Republican Nick Begich will overtake former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin for second place. But how his voters completed the rest of the ballot could determine the winner.
Current second-place finisher Palin has so far received about 29% of the absentee votes that have been counted and Begich 26.5%. Begich would need to get about 37 percent of the remaining ballots to overtake Palin, which Hockema said is exceedingly unlikely. If Begich remains in third place, as is expected, who wins the race will come down to who Begich supporters ranked second. It’s anybody’s guess, he said, adding that he made his second choice clear.
On average, 30% of ballots in ranked choice voting elections nationwide are exhausted, Hockema said. On the lower end, around 15% of ballots were exhausted in the New York mayoral primary.