Wednesday's data showed that shelter costs have risen 0.4% month over month in the past four CPI prints.
contained one consistently frustrating piece of data for economists in an otherwise encouraging report: Housing inflation isn't coming down yet.
To be sure, housing inflation eased on an annual basis in May. Shelter costs increased 5.4% over the prior year, the slowest annual gain since April 2022 and lower than their peak of 8.2% in March of the previous year.A primary factor contributing to the moderation of rent growth has been new apartment supply added to the market. Goldman Sachs economists expect overall shelter inflation to be running at a monthly pace of around 0.34% by December of this year.
in construction activity. In fact, multifamily permits have sharply declined since the start of the Fed’s hiking cycle, “which means that by the second half of ‘25 and ‘26, we can suddenly have much less supply coming into the market,” Parsons said. “Less housing construction could eventually give way to more rent inflation again in a couple years from now," Parsons said.
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