The conference likely will spend weeks, if not months, deciding whether to expand and negotiating a new media contract.
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The Big Ten just announced a new media rights agreement after six months of negotiations. These things take time, unless you have a killer deal on the table. And there is no reason to expect ESPN to make a killer offer initially, if at all. That’s a steep challenge and the reason we have installed Pac-12 survival as a mere 4.5-point favorite over Pac-12 extinction: It’s the most likely outcome but hardly a guarantee based on current dynamics.
Our sources in the media space are skeptical that Fox will bid on Pac-12 content, and the absence of a Fox digital arm certainly doesn’t help the Pac-12’s cause. The Big Ten is “not done yet” with expansion. Does that seem like more of a warning to the Pac-12, Big 12, ACC, Notre Dame or someone else entirely? — @JesseKolodkin
Expansion decisions are made on three valuation levels: institutional value, competitive value, and media value. The revenue piece gets the most attention, for good reason, but it’s not the only driver. Sure, the conference could reform with Oregon State, Washington State and a slew of Mountain West schools, but it would be the Pac-12 in name only.
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