Reports of damaging winds from the violent, fast-moving storms have surged since the devastating 2012 Mid-Atlantic event.
Connecting derecho intensity to climate change is complicated by two main issues. First, the sample size of extreme thunderstorm wind events is small and available data only dates back to 2004 — so it’s not possible to discern meaningful trends. Second, the recent increase in “significant” wind gusts noted in derechos may well be tied to an increase in weather monitoring.
But their seeming connection to record-breaking temperatures is an intriguing area of investigation, said John Allen, a professor of meteorology at Central Michigan University who researchesas rising temperatures increase instability. In an interview, he said that in a warming world, “there’s a greater breadth of favorability” for storm environments supporting derechos.“We have more days with relatively large instability and that contribution could lead to bigger events,” Allen said.
Trapp explained that the sinking air associated with strengthening summer heat domes could more frequently quash storms. “Often with heat waves, we have suppressed conditions,” he said. “Air in relatively lower parts of the atmosphere is trapped. Those conditions are not conducive to thunderstorms that are widespread and that would create a lot of damage.
Two derechos from the past year could be harbingers of what we’ll see more of in the future. The Dec. 15, 2021, derecho struck a region that had never before seen such a wintertime windstorm, while the derecho that struck Canada in May hit unusually far north and east.
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