Persistently high inflation remains the biggest economic concern this year even as most central banks are at or near the end-game for rate rises, according to Reuters polls of economists who also upgraded their 2023 growth forecasts from three months ago.
With the global economy performing better than expected so far this year, most major economies were forecast to escape an outright recession or get away with a shallow one, suggesting that policymakers have their work cut out in taming inflation.
Economists have also upgraded their inflation outlook. Median forecasts were raised for over two-thirds of 45 economies polled and economists said they were bracing for inflation to top their predictions, not undershoot them. "The big macro question of the day is how much economic weakness will be needed to bring inflation under control. Our point is that there has been only limited progress in bringing global inflation down with almost no real pain," said Ethan Harris, head of global economics research at Bank of America Securities.
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