Analysis: The GOP may still make gains this fall. But the Supreme Court's abortion ruling, declining gas prices and Trump's re-emergence give Democrats fresh cause for optimism.
Election analysts attribute the shift to the conservative Supreme Court's ruling to eliminate the constitutional right to legal abortion, declining gas prices and former President Donald Trump’s seizing the spotlight and reasserting his dominance over the GOP.The starkest sign of a shifting landscape, a highly competitive district north of New York City that has mirrored the national landscape for years. It voted for Joe Biden in 2020, Trump in 2016 and Barack Obama in 2012.
for midterm elections: Persuadable voters in the midterm election are tilting toward Democrats, the party in power. This group accounts for about 25% of respondents, who float between the parties and tend to be male, moderate, independent and exurban. They preferred Republicans by 6 points in the combined NBC News polls of January, March and May. But in the August poll, they leaned toward Democrats by 3 points.
A series of first-time Republican contenders are struggling in competitive races against seasoned Democratic politicians. Recruitment failures in states like New Hampshire and Arizona have led GOP governors to decline to run.The Senate Leadership Fund, a McConnell-allied super PAC, is
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