Market Overview Analysis by James Picerno covering: United States 2-Year, United States 10-Year. Read James Picerno's latest article on Investing.com
by the Federal Reserve to leave interest rates unchanged, along with comments from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, investors are wondering anew if the policy tightening regime has peaked.US Treasury yield is helping tip the scale in favor of the peak-rates forecast. The benchmark rate slipped for a third day on Thursday to 4.67%, a three-week low. Two weeks earlier the 10-year rate had been trading around the 5% mark.
Fed funds futures continue to lean toward the view that the current 5.25%-to-5.50% range for the target rate will mark the top for the cycle. The market is pricing in an 80% probability that the central bank will leave rates unchanged again at the next FOMC meeting on Dec. 13.Rates may have peaked, but the prospect of substantially lower yields in the near term is less convincing. Note that the 10-year yield in the chart above is still trading well above its 50- and 200-day moving averages.
“We think 5.5% long-term 10-year yields in the US is the level that seems consistent with the macro backdrop in the next five years,” There are various risks lurking, but markets have priced in current conditions. A wider Middle East war or surprises in economic data could quickly change the calculus, but for now the status quo prevails, laying the groundwork for a precarious calm.How does a recession happen? “Slowly and then all at once.” Economists are increasingly confident the economy will avoid a recession. Such is due to strong job and...
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