It’s a useful but much misunderstood concept for explaining the course of the pandemic.
is greater than 1, it means that each infected person infects more than one other person – so the rate of infection increases. Ifis less than 1, it means that not every infected person infects someone else, so over time fewer and fewer people are being infected and the outbreak declines.coming down to a value of 1, assume that whenequals 1, the number of cases will no longer increase and the cumulative number will soon plateau. This is wrong. The total number will continue to climb.
The graph below shows the same parameters extended to December 2020, which shows that the increase is close to exponential. It also shows that by year-end we would be experiencing about 35,000 new cases each day and the cumulative total would be 2.3 million.is at 1.3, which in effect means that 10 people who become infectious today will cause another 13 people to become infected when five days have passed, and they in turn will infect 17 people five days later.
Another reason we may not see the dramatic numbers is if a significant proportion of those infected never develop symptoms or develop very mild symptoms and do not come to health facilities for testing. In New York it is thought that only 10% come with symptoms and if that were true here, then of the total of 26 million we may only be aware of 2.6 million. Seedrops because our interventions improve. For example, if quarantine and isolation rates improve infectors will be infecting fewer people.
South Africa Latest News, South Africa Headlines
Similar News:You can also read news stories similar to this one that we have collected from other news sources.
Sense-making: Why it matters in mitigating Covid-19 - The Mail & GuardianWe need it to help us act responsibly when the world as we knew it seems to have shifted. It gives us something to hold on to and free us from fear’s grip
Read more »
R2bn Gautrain investment delayed due to Covid-19
Read more »
EDITORIAL: Business beyond Covid-19Globalisation is not the only thing that will be changed and possibly killed by virus
Read more »
Tension simmers as questions are raised about access to Covid-19 information'The absence of credible information is more likely to cause anxiety, uncertainty and panic.'
Read more »
OPINIONISTA: We must take action to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 on mental healthSouth Africa was already in a state of crisis with a population that was psychologically depleted, even before Covid-19. The pandemic, with its increased fear and stress, is eroding this even further.
Read more »
LIVING THROUGH COVID-19: Devastated SA arts community reaches out to find new ways of survivingIt was UK activist and playwright David Hare who once wisely opined that there are three ways to make sense of the world: religion, politics and the arts. ‘And the first two are unreliable,’ said Hare.
Read more »