Republicans lost 6 of the 8 Senate and governor's races in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2022. A suburban bellwether county in each of these states could make all the difference for the GOP in 2024.
In the four battleground states likely to decide the outcome of the next presidential election, clawing back swing-voter support in the suburbs will be the key to unlocking a Republican revival.Republicans lost six of the eight Senate and governor's races in Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in 2022. A suburban bellwether county in each of these states could make all the difference for the GOP in 2024.The epicenter of any GOP comeback in Pennsylvania starts in Bucks County.
Outgoing Sen. Pat Toomey won Bucks by five points in 2016, but former President Trump and Trump-aligned candidates have been tough sells to voters here.Centered in Green Bay, the fourth-most populous county in Wisconsin doesn't get as much attention as those including Milwaukee and Madison — but its competitive nature is pivotal to any GOP candidate's prospects.
Former Gov. Scott Walker carried Brown County by 17 points in his 2014 election, and even won by eight points in his unsuccessful 2018 campaign.This was once former House Speaker Newt Gingrich's rock-ribbed Republican home base, but now it's a fast-growing, diversifying and affluent corner of suburban Atlanta that has favored Democrats in the Trump era.
The population center of Arizona covers both the city of Phoenix and its expansive suburbs. Once a GOP stronghold, the battleground county has become the focus of the election denial movement that Trump has championed.
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