Consumers are in for a reprieve in the coming months in South Africa as economic indicators point to food price inflation stabilising, while end-month data from the Central Energy Fund shows a likely petrol price cut for September.
Stats SA published the latest consumer price inflation figures for July, pegging headline inflation at a 13-year high of 7.8%.
However, the BER said that the picture is better for August’s data, which it said should decline along with the petrol price. “We forecast headline inflation to average 6.7% over the whole of 2022. The downward trend should gain traction off this year’s higher base in 2023, with inflation forecast to reach the 4.5% midpoint of the Reserve Bank’s target range by around July next year. Inflation is forecast to average around 5.2% in calendar 2023.”Analysis from the Pietermaritzburg Economic Justice and Dignity group shows that its food basket price is moderating.
The best-case scenario sees global production easing and grain stocks getting a boost, which would put food price inflation at 5.0%, and bring all food categories back into the Reserve Bank’s target range of 3% to 6%.
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