Sanctions against Russia: To avoid collateral damage, please aim before firing
When Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine, it was widely assumed that the Russian president would enjoy overwhelming military superiority against his neighbour – even as, in a sanctions fight with the West, he found himself in a position of overwhelming economic inferiority. The Russian invasion of Ukraine would be a lopsided military contest – but Western sanctions on Russia would be a one-sided economic contest.
But Russia exports large quantities of four foundational commodities: oil, natural gas, food and fertilizer. For Russia’s traditional customers, particularly importers of the last three of those commodities, there are not always quick or easy substitutes. Even Canada, which only had a small amount of pre-war trade with Russia, has discovered that when sanctions are poorly aimed, they can harm us more than them.
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