This morning at 8:30 a.m., initial unemployment claims are expected to decline to 3.5 from 4.4 million last week. Better but still a horrendous number.
President Trump meets with NJ Gov. Phil Murphy at 11:00 a.m. and delivers remarks on protecting seniors at 4:00 p.m. … Initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. expected to drop to 3.5M from 4.4M putting the total since mid-March at close to 30M … Personal Income and Spending at 8:30 a.m. expected to drop 1.6% and 5.6%, respectively …— We wrote a bit ago that the number could look less bad if many of the newly unemployed are not counted in the labor force.
“To be officially counted as unemployed by the BLS instead, one typically has to argue that one was actively looking for jobs in the survey reference week, simply posting CVs on online platforms wouldn’t qualify. … The also documents on page 9 that 44% of those receiving unemployment benefits are actually NOT in the labor force.”— Via our Zach Warmbrodt: “JPMorgan Chase announced that it has submitted 227,000 Paycheck Protection Program applications in the small business rescue’s second wave — the biggest number yet divulged by any of the lenders participating in the effort. The loan applications totaled about $17.8 billion, with an average size of $81,000.
“But as … Trump repeatedly declares that ‘we’re opening our country again,’ the inconsistent patchwork of state, local and business decision-making is exactly what could drive a second wave of the coronavirus — or potentially prolong the current outbreak. … The U.S. death toll is still rising, often by 1,500 to 2,000 a day. It passed 60,000 on Wednesday.”
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