Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis

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Germany has three months to save itself from a winter gas crisis
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Authorities have voiced concern about social unrest if the energy shortage spins out of control

It might still be the height of summer, but Germany has little time to lose to avert an energy shortage this winter that would be unprecedented for a developed nation. Much of Europe is feeling the strain from Russia’s squeeze on natural gas deliveries, yet no other country is as exposed as the region’s biggest economy, where nearly half the homes rely on the fuel for heating.

Russia — historically the European Union’s biggest gas supplier, covering about 40 per cent of demand — has gradually reduced deliveries in evident retaliation against sanctions. The EU’s challenge is to keep energy flowing across borders in a test of the bloc’s unity and its resolve to resist President Vladimir Putin’s aggression.

If measures to re-balance supply and demand fail, the government has the power to declare a gas “emergency,” which would involve the state taking control of distribution and deciding who gets the fuel and who doesn’t.Article content The corporate sector is already reacting. A survey of 3,500 companies by business lobby DIHK showed that 16 per cent of industrial firms are considering reducing production or giving up certain operations because of the energy crisis.

Energy-intensive industries will likely gravitate to regions with reliable renewable-power resources like Germany’s windy coast or solar-rich areas in the Mediterranean, potentially hollowing out industrial regions along the Rhine and in Germany’s south, according to a senior executive at a major German manufacturer. Some chemical-industry executives say production could move to Turkey where there’s access to Azerbaijani pipelines.

Shortly after Scholz’s government took power in December, dozens of newly-elected politicians in his coalition of Social Democrats, Greens and pro-business Free Democrats had considered talk of Germany’s gas risks a conspiracy theory, but then they saw the facts: reserves at the time would last about 10 days if a cold snap set in.

“If we look in hindsight, we see that months before the war broke out Russia kept gas supplies intentionally as low as possible,” said Ursula von der Leyen, European Commission president and a former German defense minister. “Russia is blackmailing us.”Article content But even after hostilities broke out, Germany struggled to react, hemmed in by a longstanding policy of engaging with Russia and industry’s reluctance to give up cheap gas, according to officials involved in EU discussions. That era is over.

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