German Automakers Could Catch Up With Tesla One Day — But Not Close Now, & Tesla's Lead Growing
saw its sales double in 2021, and is now outselling the iconic 911. Thanks to the Taycan’s success, Porsche reached an EV share of 13.7% in 2021, by far the highest among German brands. A new electric Macan, which is expected to arrive in 2023, could bring even more Porsche drivers into the electric world.
This is all wonderful news, but Porsche is, and will remain, a niche luxury brand that sells vehicles in the hundreds of thousands , not in the millions. And the larger German brands are selling far lower relative numbers of EVs. The Volkswagen Group as a whole achieved an EV share of only around 5% in 2021, and electrification laggards Daimler and BMW each reached approximately 4%.
What would it take for the Germans to keep up with Tesla in 2022? According to Mr. Voigt’s calculations, the Volkswagen brand would have to increase its EV sales by 250% to maintain the current gap. That doesn’t mean “catching up,” it just means remaining the same distance behind.capacity. That will happen, but it will take years, and it’s doubtful that companies will meet the ambitious electrification goals they’ve set.
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