GDP update may help solve a mystery on if a U.S. recession has already started

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GDP update may help solve a mystery on if a U.S. recession has already started
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Using an old rule of thumb, the U.S. arguably fell into a recession earlier this year. Yet updated growth figures on Thursday could show the economy was not as weak as it looked.

Using an old rule of thumb, the U.S. arguably fell into a recession earlier this year. Yet updated growth figures could show the economy was not as weak as it looked.

As part of the GDP fine-tuning, the negative readings for the first half of the year will be revisited. Officially, the economy shrank at a 1.6% annual pace in the first quarter and 0.9% in the second quarter. A dictionary definition defines a recession as two quarters of declining GDP. Yet other measures such as strong hiring and record-low layoffs suggest the U.S. economy posted modest if slower growth earlier this year.

“The statistical discrepancy between the two has been at record highs, with real GDI presenting a much more resilient picture of economic growth,” economists at Deutsche Bank wrote in recent report.

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