A second wave of infections is likely. Lockdowns may be relaxed, but the world is not about to return to normal
has a plan. Ideas for exiting the covid-19 lockdown are spreading faster than the virus ever did. Spain has let builders return to work, Italy has opened stationers and bookshops, Denmark is allowing children back into nurseries and primary schools. South Africa’s opposition is calling for a relaxed “smart lockdown”. In America President Donald Trump has been sparring with state governors over who should decide what reopens when.
The need to devise exit plans is urgent. The alarming cost of hard lockdowns is becoming clearer. This week theforecast that extending full lockdowns well into the third quarter of 2020 would turn a 3% contraction of the world economy this year into a 6% one. An analysis by Norway’s covid-19 task-force, published on April 7th, compared an 18-month hard lockdown with a “slowdown” and concluded that the statistical value of the extra lives it saved would be dwarfed by its long-term cost.
What should they do? Governments need to choose from the menu of options by comparing the costs of each measure with the benefits it brings—and the calculus will differ in different countries. Should masks be mandatory? Should schools take pupils back? Which industries can safely reopen? Do you shut borders or quarantine travellers? Policies will evolve as the science improves or the disease flares up. Sometimes, that will mean tightening the rules again.
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