Forget Soledar: Russia cannot sustain the offensive initiative Analysis from TomRTweets:
Russia says it will now encircle Ukrainian forces around the nearby town of Bakhmut, sitting on the strategically valuable M03 highway. If Bakhmut falls, Russian forces would hope to push north toward the city of Slovyansk.
Top line, in 2023, the battlefield situation is unfavorable to Russia for three reasons: geography, inadequate maneuver potential, and ineffective logistics.Let's say Russian forces do seize Bakhmut . They'd still be 125 miles from Dnipro City on the Dnieper River.
At the same time, Prigozhin and Kadyrov offer unrestrained disdain for Russian military commanders. So significant is this discordant force structure that Putin was forced to step into the breach this week by promoting a commander whom Kadyrov and Prigozhin had previously criticized. Putin also appointed Russia's top military officer, Valery Gerasimov, as commander of the Ukraine operation.
Moreover, Russia's enabling forces crisis is unsolvable. Russia has suffered heavy losses to its armored vehicle, gunship, and tank forces. Running short on artillery munitions and operating units , Russian artillery fire has declined by as much as 75%. Guided by British Army doctrine and advice, Ukrainian special forces have also adeptly struck logistics hubs deep behind Russian lines. Russia lacks the means to reconstitute these enablers at a rate that allows for sustained operations.
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