After a contentious midterms elections, celebrations and recriminations will soon begin, and vital elements of U.S. political life may be clarified
In Georgia, high-stakes race has Republican Herschel Walker in a dead heat with incumbent Democrat Raphael Warnock
The best gauge for this is the voting behaviour of those without a university degree. As recently as the 1994 midterms – when insurgent Republicans overthrew 40 years of Democratic rule in the House of Representatives – 57 per cent of white Americans without a degree sided with the Democrats. By 2019, that figure dropped to 30 per cent, according to the Pew Research Center.
Nevada Republican U.S. Senate candidate Adam Laxalt, centre, takes a group photo with supporters during a Hispanic Heritage Month Fiesta at the RNC Hispanic Community Center on Oct. 13, in Las Vegas.Thus, Hispanic people are an indispensable prize in U.S. politics. When Bill Clinton won this group by 36 percentage points in 1992, Democrats grew confident that they could harness the community’s allegiance and ride them to victory for generations.
Third, there are the lessons that will emerge if the current conventional thinking – never fully accurate, and sometimes strikingly wrong – is confirmed and the GOP has a strong election night. In politics, as in sports, winning performances prompt teams to double down on their strategies, and failures prompt reflection and rebuilding. In this case, the Republicans would continue to emphasize the cultural and immigration issues that powered Mr. Trump to victory in 2016.
The Democrats would begin a struggle – almost certainly bitter – over whether to moderate their views on economics and the environment or to veer leftward. Progressives from the Bernie Sanders/Elizabeth Warren wing will almost certainly argue that Mr. Biden’s instinct for moderation has left the Democrats without a persuasive profile for blue-collar workers, who were once the party’s core after Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal.
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