Fed to cut rates twice this year, with first move in September, economists say: Reuters poll

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Fed to cut rates twice this year, with first move in September, economists say: Reuters poll
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BENGALURU, July 23 - The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just twice this year, in September and December, as resilient U.S. consumer demand warrants a cautious approach despite easing inflation, according to a growing majority of economists in a Reuters poll.

Stronger-than-expected retail sales in June suggest consumer spending remains resilient and, along with a consensus view from the poll that the jobless rate won't rise much from the current 4.1%, argues for patience. "We expect a 25-basis-point reduction in the target range at the September and December FOMC meetings, barring a meaningful upside surprise in the inflation data," wrote Jonathan Pingle, chief U.S. economist at UBS.

While 16 expected one or no cut this year, 11 predicted more than two. Among 21 primary dealers polled, nearly 60%, or 12, expected the Fed to reduce rates twice in 2024. None of the measures of inflation - the consumer price index , core CPI, PCE and core PCE - were expected to reach 2% until at least 2026, according to median forecasts in the latest poll.

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