Slightly high prices and lower input costs, as well as the prospect of good rain will probably driving this
Lost your password? Please enter your username or email address. You will receive a link to create a new password via email.Lost your password? Please enter your username or email address. You will receive a link to create a new password via email.After a difficult 2023-24 summer crop season, which saw South Africa’s grains and oilseeds production falling by 24% year-on-year to 15,39 million tonnes, the recovery period may be in sight.
There are three primary drivers of this optimism. First, the relatively higher grains and oilseed prices on the back of the poor harvest in the past season provide an incentive for increased planting in the 2024-25 season. Second, the season starts with relatively better-priced input costs than the past season. For example, in rands terms, most fertiliser product prices were down by roughly 10% year-on-year in September 2024 compared with the previous year.
Last, the prospects of a La Niña-induced rainfall in the 2024-25 summer season is another additional factor to be optimistic about the agricultural outlook. Most regions of the country have not received any meaningful rains, but it is still early, and we suspect there could be a late start to the season.
An important point to underscore here is that “normal” weather conditions in a summer season imply regular rainfall, not drought or “El Niño”. Therefore, the normalising weather prospects from February should not be a significant worry.
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