How much bad-debt pain can Europe’s big banks take? A new Breakingviews calculator shows most capital buffers can absorb a spike three times as bad as the 2009 average. Read the full view here LiamWardProud ReutersFlasseur
European banks including HSBC, UBS, Deutsche Bank and Barclays are due to publish first-quarter results in the week starting April 27.
Deutsche Bank on April 26 said its first-quarter earnings would be 66 million euros, higher than analysts had expected. However, the bank said it was possible its common equity Tier 1 capital would fall “modestly and temporarily” below its 12.5% target. UniCredit said on April 22 that it expected provisions for bad debt to be between 1% and 1.2% of its average loan book in 2020, falling to between 0.7% and 0.9% in 2021.
UniCredit expects the euro zone’s GDP to contract by 13% in 2020, followed by a 10% expansion in 2021. Sweden’s Handelsbanken said on April 22 that its credit losses for the first three months of 2020 were 538 million Swedish crowns, or 0.08% of total loans. That compared with a 0.05% ratio in the first quarter of 2019, and 0.04% in the final three months of the year.
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