European natural gas surged to about 15 times the average summer time price and power smashed through records as the threat of Russian supply cuts ripped through the market and threatened to push the German economy into recession.
Benchmark gas futures rose as much as 21%, while German power surged to above 700 euros a megawatt-hour for the first time. The key Nord Stream gas pipeline will stop for three days of maintenance on Aug. 31, again raising concerns that the link won’t return to service as planned after the works. Europe has been on tenterhooks about shipments through the link for weeks, with flows resuming only at very low levels after it was shut for works last month.
“The catastrophe is already there,” Thierry Bros, a professor in international energy at Sciences Po in Paris, said. “I think the major question is when EU leaders are going to wake up.”Germany warned Moscow could further reduce gas supplies, and reiterated a call to conserve energy. “We have a very critical winter right in front of us,” German Economy Minister Robert Habeck told public broadcaster ZDF in Montreal, during a visit to Canada with Chancellor Olaf Scholz.
“Whether the reasoning is true or not, the outcome drives a European gas market that tightens further, and one that is left reliant on demand curtailments to find itself in balance,” said Biraj Borkhataria, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets. “The market may disregard Gazprom’s comments and start to consider whether the pipeline may not return to service, or at the very least may be delayed for any given reason.”The Dutch front-month contract, the European benchmark, was 17% higher at 286.
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