EUR/USD remains capped below 1.1000 as geopolitics weighs on euro, hawkish Fed vibes boost buck By Frank_Macro EURUSD Fed
r to session lows in the 1.0980 area, down about 0.25% on the day. The pair saw some strength in early European trade as a result of stronger than forecast flash Eurozonefigures for March, but this euro strength was short-lived, with traders very much still focused on the Ukraine war. The risks of an energy crunch in Europe has risen after Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on Wednesday that unfriendly countries would have to purchase Russian energy in roubles.
EUR/USD also finds itself weighed upon amid the broadly strong US dollar which 1) reflects safe-haven demand amid the ongoing Ukraine crisis and 2) reflects the recent hawkish shift in Fed communications and subsequent move higher in US yields. With the 21-Day Moving Average continuing to act as a strong level of resistance, EUR/USD downside at this point feels more likely than a sustained break back towards last week’s highs in the 1.1100s.
Ahead, US flash PMIs for March are out next at 1345GMT followed by more Fed speak and given the hawkish shift seen by other policymakers who have spoken thus far, the recipe remains towards a stronger buck. Geopolitics, of course, remains a key theme to watch as well as the G7 and EU announce tougher sanctions against Russia and NATO announces a bolstering of its forces on its Eastern flank.
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