Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study - Nature Communications

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Estimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study - Nature Communications
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More than 50% of COVID-19 deaths could have been prevented with better global vaccine distribution, says study northeastern NatureComms

). Hence, we assume a higher or an earlier availability of doses. For each counterfactual scenario, we estimate the impact of the changed vaccine rollout as the percent reduction in deaths during the simulation period compared to the actual vaccine rollout . We note how the scenario without vaccines could be used as an alternative baseline. The goal is to quantify the impact of vaccine inequities, hence we opted to select the factual rollout as the baseline.

The second counterfactual scenario investigates the impact of an earlier start of the vaccination campaigns without changes in allocation volume. In other words, this scenario considers a more equal timing in the allocation of vaccine doses. We take as a reference point the start of the vaccination campaign in the US which took place on December 14, 2020.

Fig. 3: Counterfactual scenarios - Deaths averted if countries had US-equivalent vaccination start date. Deaths averted expressed as a percentage with respect to the actual vaccination rollout , assuming United States start date of December 14, 2020. Averted deaths are computed over the simulation period . The median absolute number of deaths averted is reported above the inter-quartile range.In the counterfactual scenarios studied above, our modeling approach considers the same level of NPIs implemented in the factual scenario.

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