Over 6 000MW of capacity will likely be kept online for as long as possible …
Eskom’s latest Medium-Term System Adequacy Outlook , published last week, signals a significant departure from all previous forecasts and official plans which saw over 6 000MW of coal capacity shut down by the end of 2028.
It is not policy, per se, nor can it necessarily effect decisions, but it provides a sober, objective assessment of “supply-demand balances or lack thereof over the next five calendar years”. If there is a gap, it produces a gap analysis to calculate how much energy is required to balance the system.Eskom’s original planning, including last year’s MTSAO as well as the latest Integrated Resource Plan , sees a significant amount of coal capacity being removed.
In its summer outlook from September, Eskom noted that Camden and Hendrina are among its six coal power stations showing “good performance”. Eskom says a “detailed techno-economic study is currently underway that will provide more planning inputs and optimised shutdown dates in order to balance capacity and economic considerations for the country”.
If the ‘current’ shutdown plan is implemented, coal generation capacity will decline from 39GW in 2024/25 to 37GW in 2026, and 35GW in 2028. The only reason capacity would stay stable at 39GW until 2025 is due to Kusile units 4 and 5 reaching commercial operation and the return to service of Medupi unit 4 which was blown to pieces just over a month after the station was officially completed in 2021.
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