If Eskom were to increase its coal fleet’s capacity factor to at least 50%, the chances of intensified load-shedding over winter would be significantly reduced.
South Africa could be subjected to as high as stage 11 load-shedding this winter, despite Eskom saying stage 6 is unlikely over the winter months.historical winter load-shedding data and the condition of Eskom’s coal power plants to make rotational power cut predictions.
“Load-shedding maximum and average monthly results based on coal fleet capacity factors as predicted for January and February,” the caption accompanying his predictions said.In February 2022, he explained that Eskom’s coal generation fleet was in such a bad state that less than 40% was operational. If Eskom’s coal fleet CF remains at its current level of around 40%, Eskom would have to implement an average of stage 4 power cuts to stabilise the grid between April and September 2023.
While several people, including former Eskom CEO André de Ruyter, former Eskom executive Robbie van Heerden, and Intellidex capital markets head Peter Attard Montalto, have warned ofKgosientsho Ramokgopa, Minister of Electricity He is also confident that four of the five out-of-action units at the Kusile Power station will be back online by 24 December 2023, with the last set to be operational by February 2024.
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