Breakingviews - Elon Musk’s promises are getting more realistic
Tesla CEO Elon Musk gestures as he visits the construction site of Tesla's Gigafactory in Gruenheide near Berlin, Germany, August 13, 2021. Patrick Pleul/Pool via Reuters//File Photoboss told investors earlier this month that the $855 billion carmaker can keep growing production by at least 50% a year “for quite a while”. He also thinks its Model Y SUV will be the world’s best-selling vehicle by 2023. Musk has a history of missing targets.
, might not come online as quickly. But the success in China suggests the company can keep ramping up production capacity., for example, handed over a third fewer vehicles in the United States than in the three months to June. Tesla globally sold 20% more. That’s also, though, thanks to Tesla doing a better job of securing semiconductors despite the enduring global shortage. Suppliers now regard Musk’s company as a strategic customer, Morgan Stanley analysts point out, which gives it heft in negotiations and bumps it up the delivery pecking order. Tesla also makes some of its chips in-house, giving it more control over availability.
It all makes Musk’s second prediction, about being the best-selling car by 2023, a possibility. Based on U.S. quarterly sales and September’s Shanghai showing, Tesla’s 2021 annualised sales run rate is almost 1 million vehicles, more than 90% of them the Model 3 and Y. A 50% yearly growth rate would take that to almost 2.5 million units in 2023.
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