How well do opposition parties understand the country's most pressing issues ahead of polls on 29 May?
Out of the 15 claims we checked, the most – three – came from the Congress of the People’s manifesto, and these were all correct, about the percentage of the national budget spent on education, the government’s budget deficit and the number of South Africans connected to the energy grid.
Over the past few months, Africa Check has examined the claims made in the election manifestos of the country’s main political parties – the ruling African National Congress, the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters. The International Labour Organization , a UN agency, compiles annual unemployment statistics for 189 countries, territories and areas of the world. Its estimates provide data on youth aged 15 to 24.
More recent data has since become available. From January to March 2024, the unemployment rate among black South Africans was 36.9%. The rate for white South Africans was 9.2%. But a similar claim can be found in a media release from the South African policy research and advocacy organisation, the Centre for Development and Enterprise . It says that ‘after a year of school more than 50% of grade 1 learners don’t know all the letters in the alphabet’, but doesn't give an attribution for the statistic.
“We documented letter-sound knowledge among samples of learners in no-fee charging schools in two provinces, namely the Eastern Cape and North West. We found that just 48% and 39% of these samples respectively could sound at least 26 letters correct per minute by the end of grade 1.” Africa Check contacted the National Treasury to confirm how much of the budget is allocated to education.
Defaulting on debt can cause ‘financial panic’ within and outside a country. When this happens, it makes future borrowing more difficult and expensive and slows economic growth and foreign investment.The UDM claimed a close enough ratio but was less accurate about the rand value of the debt. In 2023, South Africa’s finance minister predicted that debt would reach R5.84 trillion by 2025/56, but this is not the current figure.What this ratio means for the economy is not entirely agreed.
On the other hand, he explained, Japan’s notoriously high debt-to-GDP ratio of over 200% was seen as ‘more creditworthy’ because it was better equipped to repay those debts. Krugell told Africa Check that this surplus only took into account current tax income and spending and excluded interest repayments on debt. But achieving this primary budget surplus would mean more funds could be used to repay debt rather than pay interest, reducing the country’s overall debt burden.
The IMF calculates GDP using data from countries, as well as estimates from partial data and observed trends. This means that some GDP figures represent actual observed data, while others are estimates or projections of what a country’s GDP is likely to be in the future. It should also be noted, though, that PPP estimates have their own shortcomings. They involve complex calculations that may introduce inaccuracies, and they can overestimate the economic strength of low-income countries.
According to the latest annual report from the SAPS, the murder detection rate in 2022/23 was 12.48%. This was down from 14.5% the year before, which was closer to the rate the PA claimed. Instead, as the ISS has previously told Africa Check, other aspects of policing play a far bigger role. “It’s not about numbers, it’s about strategy, it’s about having a clear crime plan,” according to the ISS.The SAPS annual report for 2022/23 recorded 179 502 total employees or 147 622 excluding administrative staff. Statistics from the latest census show that South Africa’s population was 62 027 503 in 2022.
While murder rates markedly declined from 1994 onwards, the trend reversed around 2011, and rates have climbed to heights only previously seen during the turmoil of South Africa’s transition to democracy. Analysis of the 2022 GHS, the latest available, found that at least 5 million people lived in informal dwellings. A further 83 654 lived in caravans, tents or other forms of shelter.The GHS data is based on a sample of about 30 000 households. Although this may seem like a small sample, Stats SA’s service delivery statistics manager Niël Roux previously told Africa Check that it was large enough to provide an accurate snapshot of the country as a whole.
A water balance is drawn up based on International Water Association guidelines using meters installed in the water system. Ayesha Laher, water scientist and director of water management consultancy AHL Water, told Africa Check that it was a good way for water service authorities to understand how much water there was and where the losses were but that more investigation was required to determine the causes of the loss.
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