Ramaphosa’s repeated assurances are ever more empty amid the omnishambles the economy has become
When President Cyril Ramaphosa stands up to deliver his state of the nation address next week, we can be sure that he will as always talk about unemployment and the need for job creation, and that he will assure us that this is a critical priority for government.
It is not just Eskom and the energy crisis though that looms large as employers across a range of industries struggle to cope with the fallout of stage 6 load-shedding. It is also Transnet and the logistics crisis that is putting jobs at risk as miners struggle to get their exports to market. It is the breakdown of law and order that is threatening investment, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal.
That would require sustained economic growth rates of 4%-5%, or 2%-3% just to stabilise the unemployment rate. But SA’s growth is now forecast by the Reserve Bank to come in at well under 1% a year over the next three years. Even the rather bullish forecast this week from the IMF is at just 1.2% for this year. The global economy is slowing, as is SA’s. The outlook for jobs is bleak. And it’s getting worse in the current omnicrisis.
Then there is the coal export crisis. Transnet’s collapse has seen coal exports through the Richards Bay Coal Terminal plummet to 1993 levels, with RBCT reporting it processed just 50-million tonnes in 2022 from a peak of 76-million six years ago. The collapse of the heavy-haul line that transports the coal from the mines to the coast reflects the large number of Transnet locomotives that are out of commission as well as cable theft and criminality.
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