Could the ANC’s share of the vote actually fall below 40% in 2024? It seems it’s more than a distinct possibility.
Over the weekend, Rapport newspaper, citing the ANC’s own polling, placed its support at under 40% in two years’ time.
Elections analyst Dawie Scholtz, highly regarded for his keen eye for electoral trends and largely accurate election modelling, was not convinced, given the scant detail of the poll. While the numbers vary, there are some discernible patterns. In particular, it suggests that if the next general election were to be held tomorrow, ANC support would have plunged by over 10 percentage points since the last election in 2019, when it received a fortuitous 57%. At the time, the country was fuelled by “Ramaphoria” after the ANC’s watershed 2017 national conference elected Cyril Ramaphosa to the helm.
Typically, the ANC performs better in national elections than at local government level, which is just as well since in the 2021 local election it slipped below 50% to a record low of 45.6%. In that election, most of the country’s eight major cities were taken over by opposition-led coalitions.
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