SINGAPORE: Private sector economists have cut their forecast for Singapore’s economic growth this year to 1 per cent, down from an earlier projection in June of 1.4 per cent.
A slowdown in the external growth environment was cited as the top downside risk, with economists also flagging inflationary pressures and slowing growth in China.
These findings were released on Wednesday in the Monetary Authority of Singapore’s latest survey of professional forecasters. A total of 22 economists and analysts responded to the survey.This range was narrowed from a previous forecast of 0.5 to 2.5 per cent, with MTI saying in August that it sees a “weak” external demand outlook for the rest of the year.According to the MAS survey, the manufacturing sector – a key economic indicator – is expected to contract by 4.
Singapore’s manufacturing output, which accounts for about one-fifth of the country’s gross domestic product, has been in contraction territory for about a year amid weak global demand, according to the Purchasing Managers' Index.For the third quarter of this year, economists in the MAS survey expect GDP to grow by 1 per cent year on year, higher than the 0.5 per cent year-on-year expansion in the second quarter.Private sector economists also expect core inflation to come in at 4.
Core inflation, which excludes accommodation and private transport costs, is forecast to hit 3.5 per cent in the third quarter of this year, according to the survey respondents.None of the respondents expect changes to Singapore’s monetary policy – to the slope, width and level of the S$NEER policy band in MAS’ October review.
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